Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour Shortlist

After interviews that were conducted with a panel from the NEC, the Labour shortlist for Stoke-on-Trent Central is:

Cllr Dr Allison Gardner
Cllr Dr Stephen Hitchin
Trudie McGuinness
Cllr Gareth Snell

A very interesting list to say the least, and surprising too.

Maybe more later.

Monday, 23 January 2017

Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour Long List

Details about the long list for Stoke-on-Trent Central's Labour candidacy started to emerge in dribs and drabs at tea time this evening. The applicants who've made it this far have received an invitation to attend a shortlisting interview with a panel of Labour's National Executive Committee in London tomorrow. In all, the NEC received 41 applications for the vacancy.

Without further ado, the long listed are ...

Cllr Sam Corcoran
Cllr Dr Allison Gardner
Cllr Olwen Hamer
Cllr Dr Stephen Hitchin
Sonia Klein
Trudie McGuinness
Mark Meredith
Cllr Michael Payne
Cllr Gareth Snell
Cllr Mike Stubbs
David Williams

This is an exceptionally strong long list. I know some of these folks very well and am confident they will do an excellent job.

For your information Sam Corcoran is a councillor in nearby Sandbach in Cheshire, Allison Gardner is chair of Newcastle-under-Lyme CLP and a councillor for Chesterton, Olwen Hamer is a councillor on Stoke-on-Trent City Council and has worked for as well been a workplace representative for Unison. Stephen Hitchen is a councillor in Chesterfield, and Sonia Klein stood for Labour in Ilford North in 2010 and worked for Left Foot Forward. Trudie McGuinness is the Labour candidate for Cannock on Staffs County Council and ran as Labour's candidate in Staffordshire Moorlands in 2015. Mark Meredith was the former directly-elected mayor for Stoke-on-Trent between 2005 and 2009, and sat again as a councillor between 2011 and 2015. Michael Payne is Deputy Council Leader on Gedling Borough Council, Gareth Snell is a councillor in Newcastle-under-Lyme and works for Unison. Mike Stubbs also represents Labour in the borough where he sits for Talke, and David Williams stood for Labour in the 2015 local elections in Stoke and works for the YMCA.

This is a very difficult field to whittle down, but I trust the NEC panel will draw up a shortlist of strong candidates for us to select from.

Sunday, 22 January 2017

Paul Nuttall in Stoke

A scene replaying itself night after night in drinking establishments across the land. A man, in late middle age, sat alone nursing a pint. He wears a creased suit and a defeated expression, and staring into the drink his mind races with what might have been. This was the London Road Ale House on Friday evening, and the gentleman concerned was Mick Harold, the chair of the local UKIP branch. When Tristram Hunt announced his resignation, Harold must surely have thought he was in with a shout of taking the seat. His party, he came second in 2015 after years of hard work and financial sacrifice. With a low turn out, with Jeremy Corbyn in the leader's office, with a government paralysed by indecision and dithering, and the media hype machine bigging up UKIP, there, right there, was his chance to hit the big time. And it was taken from him without so much as a thank you.

Pausing only to disentangle himself from a parachute, the moment UKIP leader Paul Nuttall appeared at the North Staffs Hotel for Friday night's selection meeting, it was all over for anyone else's ambitions. And to make sure, the NEC were in the back pocket to overrule the branch's decision had it not gone the right way. After all, they couldn't well pulp all the 'Paul Nuttall for Stoke-on-Trent Central' leaflets his goons brought with them ready for Saturday morning leafleting.

Contrary to my useless prediction and warnings about the localist flavour of this by-election, they decided to go for the big name. In as much Nuttall can be regarded as an A-lister. That said, and to be fair to the purples their leader was in a sticky wicket. He won the party leadership on the promise of targeting Labour seats though, historically, like all right-populist and fascist outfits they do best among small business and middle class voters. Their mistake. Nuttall therefore would have looked pathetic and frit to not follow through the logic of his position, despite having no prior association with Stoke. However, the UKIP leader has mined his past for appropriate biographical links. Sandwiched betwixt playing professionally for Tranmere Rovers and being there at Hillsborough lies the claim, revealed on the West Midlands segment of The Sunday Politics, that he lived in Shelton a short time as a student. Yeah, in much the same way I "lived in Liverpool" during Labour Party conference.

Nuttall's first leaflet goes on about what a great MP he would be. Stoke-on-Trent Central can look forward to "representation it has never had in Parliament before". Whatever you might think of Barnet Stross, Robert Cant, Mark Fisher, and Tristram Hunt they did turn up to the Commons and represent the constituency. Nuttall came 736th out of 756 in terms of attendance at the European Parliament in the 2009-14 session. As the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour, I agree with Nuttall that our constituency can look forward to something novel. Still, doing the business on the green benches is only half of what goes on. Every MP is more than one woman or man, they are a small team of researchers and caseworkers. Here, Nuttall's record promises something exceptional too. Tristram, just like his Labour colleagues Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Rob Flello in Stoke South have offices in the constituency that deal with the problems their constituents bring them, and produce the work that makes for strong challenges to government policy. Nuttall's office operation is currently getting looked into by the European Parliament. Despite claiming office expenses and three staff to support his sporadic work in Brussels, no trace of his operation can be found beyond a PO Box. Can Stokies therefore look forward to their correspondence getting filed in the waste paper basket a la the luckless folks of the North West?

His leaflet goes on. He promises to prioritise housing for local people (nudge, nudge, wink, wink), understands the pressure of uncontrolled immigration (so out of control that only 96.3% of Stokies were born in the UK) and calls for the abolition of the bedroom tax. Sounds identical to the platform the BNP took to the electorate during the 2011 council elections. It didn't work then, and Labour is going to make sure this opportunist pitch doesn't work now.

If UKIP are so keen to imitate the BNP, I would ask the local branch to cast their minds back to the 2010 general election. They might recall Alby Walker, then leader of the group in the City Council chamber. He and his not-so-merry band of misfits worked hard and expected to snatch the seat from Labour off the back of Gordon Brown's popularity and media hype. Then Simon Darby, the BNP's deputy leader overruled local aspirations and imposed himself as the party's candidate. Walker resigned, coincidentally discovering that his party was racist along the way. He announced his own independent candidacy and came nowhere. Darby fell short by a country mile too, but still. Walker could look at himself in the mirror. He got steamrollered, but dusted himself down and fought back. Despite dwelling in the fascist gutter for the sake of a modest councillor's allowance, he salvaged some self-respect from the whole affair. I therefore urge that lonely man in the Ale House to think seriously. His dreams are shattered. He'll only ever visit Westminster on a Parliamentary tour. But he doesn't have to be one of the little people, he doesn't have to take a shafting from an uncaring career politician. He can win back his sense of agency with a display of the bulldog spirit. How about it then, Mick? You can't win, but the next pint doesn't have to taste so bitter.

Thursday, 19 January 2017

The Disgrace of Andrew Dobson

On my way into town this morning, I received a text message. "Have you seen today's Sentinel!" The exclamation mark indicated urgency. What could it be? Had Paul Nuttall finally declared for Stoke Central? Had egregious backroom shenanigans made the paper? Has another local MP announced their resignation? It was something much more shocking. When I got to see a copy, the headline read: "University professor's online sex chats with underage girls". That doesn't properly convey the seriousness of the crime: said man was found in possession of some of the most disgusting and abusive imagery as well. What made it shattering was who the conviction was handed down to: Professor Andy Dobson, formerly of Keele University.

For those not familiar with his work, Dobson was, and I suppose still is, the world's leading green political theorist. His main contributions were around the notion of ecological citizenship, that large numbers of people were entering into politics with ecological and environmental concerns in mind, and this conditioned their activity, their modes of organisation and issues of interest, and the construction of their identity. Ecological citizenship had also become diffuse. As the state took on the language and practice of bureaucratically mandated equality, it too encourages moments of ecological citizenship. Engaging in recycling, saving energy, pedalling about or using public transport are green virtues that have integrated themselves into mainstream notions of good citizenship. Dobson wasn't content with allowing the state to become the repository of environmental virtue; the crisis of climate change could not be averted just by leaving out the recycling bin. It required active agency by citizens to change their behaviour and push for green policies. He was therefore an advocate of critical citizenship education in schools. This went beyond conventional understandings restricting citizenship to the sanctioned political process (i.e. the responsibility of voting and perhaps joining a political party). As the environmental crisis pays no attention to constitutional niceties, he argued that citizenship classes must teach students how to organise non-conventionally. In other words, alongside learning about politics and parties, they must cover the nuts and bolts of running a campaign, how to mobilise participants for demonstrations, lobby politicians, organise civil disobedience and so on. Latterly, Dobson was also exploring the the place of listening in political theory. With the decline of dialogue and the reduction of political debate to name calling, outright lying and affected ignorance, a major study in this area could have been as timely as potentially useful.

When I was doing my PhD, I saw and spoke to Dobson almost everyday. He was a popular member of staff and was very well liked by the students. Considering his superstar status, there was none of that arrogant nonsense surrounding his person. And as far as I knew, he had a teaching load no different to his less celebrated colleagues. Dobson is partly responsible for my doctorate, he was the internal examiner of my thesis. And everyone knew "Andy" to be an extremely busy man. When he wasn't discharging academic duties, Dobson gave the local Green Party a lot of time and personally oversaw many of its campaigns in North Staffordshire. He went so far as to write the party's 2010 General Election Manifesto. Always busy, always up to his neck in one project or another. I can remember more than one occasion where postgrad students and lecturers wondered where he got the time from to do all this stuff.

And then, suddenly, it all stopped. I was talking to someone a couple of summers ago, and they told me about Dobson's disappearance. One day he was there, the next he was gone. There was no explanation. His website was wiped of all material, he answered no text messages or emails. The University basically scrubbed him, though no one apart from senior management knew whether he was remained employed or not. The assumption I and many others made was the volume of work had got the better of him and he'd undergone a crisis or mental collapse of some sort. The disappearance and extreme withdrawal from his career and friends a means of trying to find balance. And this was very much the view of one of his friends I saw just before Christmas. Now we know it was because he'd been arrested on sex abuse imagery and internet grooming charges.

I have absolutely no sympathy for Dobson. I feel for his young family, for his friends and colleagues he disgracefully let down. And most of all, the young girls he groomed online. I hope Dobson's predatory behaviour will not leave them with psychological scars and lasting harms. Unfortunately, his sentence - 10 months suspended and 10 years on the Sex Offenders Register - does not reflect the seriousness of the offences he admitted to. His reputation is in tatters, most of his friends and acquaintances will now forever shun him, but he should be thanking his lucky stars. If he hadn't got a brilliant career and wasn't a pillar of the local establishment, if he was a postman from Cross Heath or supermarket worker from Shelton, how likely is it the judge would have proven so forgiving and lenient?

What this means for the future trajectory of his work is unclear. Academia tends not to be like the world of pop, whereby the works of sex offender rockstars are placed on the list of proscribed tracks. When Louis Althusser murdered Hélène Rytmann, his wife, apparently in his sleep, he was remanded to psychiatric custody. There was a tidal wave of shock, but all throughout the early part of the 1980s Althusser's ideas were taken seriously, discussed, critiqued and eventually abandoned as intellectual fashions moved on. What will be the reception to Dobson? Will his ideas and the emerging research programme survive his disgrace? One thing is sure, he himself is done. There is some assistance available to people who have unacceptable desires, as explored a couple of years ago by Channel Four, but Dobson chose not to avail himself of this. Instead he secretly, craftily made the decision to abuse young girls online, and compound that suffered by others by acquiring abusive imagery. We'll never know why he risked everything for a cheap criminal thrill, but he is entirely responsible for his choice.

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

Stoke-on-Trent Central Selection Timetable

The timetable for the selection of the Labour candidate for Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election has been agreed by the NEC and was posted up on Membersnet earlier on today. And what a shocker it is. Most of the time, the Labour Party is a sclerotic beast that ambles about slowly. The selection demonstrates it can move lightning fast when occasion demands. Hold on to your hats ...

Applications have to be received by party headquarters by 10am Monday 23rd January.

Longlisted candidates will be notified later that day and invited to an interview by the NEC shortlisting panel on Tuesday 24th January.

Once the interviews are completed, they will make a shortlist and notify the candidates of the outcome.

The selection meeting by the good comrades of Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour Party takes place on Wednesday 25th January.

Shiver me timbers, I've seen long selections, short selections, and stitched selections, but never one married to such a tight timetable. This time next week we will have a Labour candidate in place who will (hopefully) go on to be the next MP for Stoke Central!

Why the hurry? The Christian People's Alliance caught everyone on the hop by announcing their by-election candidate on Tuesday. Of slightly more significance, UKIP are due to select on Friday. The papers are convinced it's Nuttall, but the kipper skipper is staying mum. I can't imagine local UKIP supremo Mick Harold would be too happy. Here he is, years of hard work and gruelling campaigning only for the leader to parachute onto his turf to tell him to bugger off. Could history repeat itself? I for one would welcome Nuttall's decision to stand, because it provides Labour a fantastic opportunity to give him the drubbing he so thoroughly deserves. We have the means. If we select the right candidate and carefully choose our platform, we'll have the ways.

While we're talking about internal competitive elections for the Labour Party, I might as well announce my candidacy ... for the chair of City Centre Branch of Stoke Central CLP. If you're a member of the branch, I hope you can make the meeting at 6.30 on Friday and that I can count on your support.

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Previewing the Stoke-on-Trent Central By-Election

Finally, here's the third installment on the Stoke-on-Trent politics special. We've spoken about Tristram Hunt's career in The Potteries, and we've turned our attention to the local scene. Now it's time to go all Mystic Meg and break out the politics astrology charts. For which party do the stars align?

Labour have got to be the favourites. Stoke-on-Trent Central was born a Labour seat, and the party will be stretching every sinew to ensure it stays that way until the Boundary Commission kills it. Labour has some very strong cards to play. Firstly, the membership. All the Stoke-on-Trent and North Staffordshire parties are active, campaigning organisations in-between elections. The bad old days of nothing happening unless we were asking for votes are long gone. Additionally, the combined membership of these parties are huge. Stoke Central itself is pushing 500, the other Stoke parties are more or less the same and nearby parties are, if anything, even larger. And we know people are going to travel from far and wide to help out. In short, a tsunami of Labour activists are poised to swamp the constituency, and none of the other parties will come close to matching it.

Second, that large membership means Labour is deeply rooted. It means there are thousands of people in the constituency who know a party member, a number high enough that the party's organisational weight becomes a factor in the by-election. On top of that, the party has incomparable local knowledge of the city and its problems. The MP's office, the seven seats held by Labour councillors in the constituency, and party members themselves - some of whom are at the sharp end of the difficulties our city faces - know what's happening, they have a feeling for the mood of the constituency which will inform the campaign. But truly, the only way this can be properly harnessed is if the party selects a local candidate. In my previous post, I joked about how we drew up a list of 30 people who were likely to apply. That is increasingly looking like a conservative estimate. There is enough talent in the Labour parties of North Staffordshire to defend the seat and serve the constituency well in Parliament. I understand this is the preference of people higher up the chain too. For instance, at the PLP meeting on Monday night both Ruth Smeeth and Jack Dromey argued for a local candidate. We shall see once the NEC selection panel meets and sifts through the applications. To be sure, shortlisting candidates with weak to no ties to Stoke would be a serious mistake and selecting one would make the job of defending the seat that much harder.

Labour also needs to pitch its messaging just right. I think a Labour Plan for Stoke is a good core to arrange the rest of our platform around, but we cannot ignore the bigger issues. Brexit will be a theme, and it's a drum UKIP are sure to beat early and often. The by-election represents an opportunity to boil Labour's position down to things we can take on the doorstep and win sceptical voters around. A touch of populism might go a long way. And there are key local issues too. Theresa May might think the NHS suffered a few scattered incidents over recent weeks, but people who visit and work at Royal Stoke Hospital know a pack of lies when they hear them. With Stoke's higher rates of morbidity, the health service is more of an issue than most other places. Addressing the NHS crisis must be part of the package. Likewise, using our campaign to highlight City Council cuts to Sure Start centres is essential. Labour ring-fenced and protected them during its time as the city's administration, while the ruling coalition can't wait to take an axe to them. And there is the matter of the council acquiring wallpaper at £70 a roll to prettify the Civic Centre. Not that big in the grand scheme of things, but overpriced decorating at a time of severe budgetary pressure demonstrates a certain arrogance and insensitivity. At least Labour's spending was about spurring regeneration. With this kind of approach, I believe Labour can consolidate and build on its vote as we saw in pre-Brexit by-elections in "safe" Labour seats.

What of the challengers? Too many London-based commentators remain obsessed with UKIP and the unique danger it allegedly poses to Labour strongholds, despite their by-election fortunes sliding since before the referendum took place. They will bang on about the EU and immigration because they're the only catchy (read irritating) tunes they know. Also, despite speculation about Paul Nuttall or someone "famous" standing, I would be surprised if their Friday night selection meeting picked a candidate other than local chair Mick Harold. They are not stupid. Just as Labour's vulnerability increases with its candidate's originating distance from the city, this too applies to UKIP. If Nuttall has any nous, he'd keep well away. Nevertheless, the pressure is on. He staked his leadership on hammering Labour in the north (Stoke isn't the north, but bear with me). If UKIP doesn't improve significantly on 2015 or, gasp, even falls into reverse him, his strategy and his party are in trouble.

There are perfectly good reasons to believe UKIP will fall back. As observed elsewhere, voters are moving in different directions again. UKIP, their Brexit purpose served, has lost some of their edge. The none-of-the-above'ers are starting to shrivel up and return their votes once more to the LibDems. Leave voters who have EU-related issues at the forefront of their mind appear to be moving back to the Tories - one can only assume that trend is strengthened by Theresa May's hard Brexit speech. Another problem is what their City Independent partners decide to do. During the 2015 local elections some of the council votes you might describe as "naturally UKIP" went instead to the indies. Without a doubt, had the CIndies not bothered the city would probably groan under a Conservative/UKIP coalition, and Labour would have lost more seats. They may not stand in deference to their purple friends (and their Tory boss in the deputy leader's office), but we shall see. And lastly, as part of the coalition UKIP are responsible for the cuts made on their watch. How can they profess to care for the city's future when their SureStart cuts hobble our kids before they get out of the gate?

The Conservatives are feeling bullish about their chances, and they have every right to be so. It is a long shot, but they probably have a better chance of taking the seat than UKIP - and if they do the political fallout would be harsher than a purple people bleater victory. They know their vote is recomposing itself and will become, again, the preferred choice of right-wing, anti-Labour working class voters. Presently, Theresa May's undeserved image as a serious grown-up one nation politician is an asset. And, according to the polls, Labour are floundering and the leader is trailing May by a hefty margin on nearly every metric going. If they can't win in a place like Stoke now, when can they win? Going for them are the recent successes in the city - the big improvements to Hanley, the presence of thousands more students with cash to spend and the securing of a new shopping district are all welcome, and all harvested from the seeds Labour ploughed in when it controlled the council. Not that it will stop them from taking the credit. Their difficulties arise with the NHS and SureStart cuts and, if Labour can exploit May's Wrexit nonsense, perhaps break them on what they regard as their strongest suit. There also remains a residual anti-Tory feeling in enough areas of the city thanks to what they did to the mines and manufacturing, and it's difficult to see how this could be overcome.

What of the Liberal Democrats? What indeed. Just like Copeland, when it's Labour who are defending and/or are in the best position to take a parliamentary seat, all talk of a progressive alliance falls out of the usual suspects' heads. But we have seen some extremely impressive by-election gains from them over the last year, and particularly in Sunderland last week where they came from nowhere to take a safe Labour seat. Could a stream of yellow voters pass water all over Labour's prospects? The LibDems do have historic support in Northwood & Birches Head (as was) and what is now Springfields & Trent Vale. The three seats from these wards are held by the CIndies. Of note here is Cllr Jean Bowers, who was once a leading LibDem light until opportunism knocked in 2015 and that membership was exchanged for the CIndies. Not the first time she's changed her political clothing for the sake of electoral convenience. Perhaps what you might expect to be the most LibDemmy bit of the constituency is Penkhull, which is effectively a village on top of a hill in the city. This is as middle class as Stoke Central gets, and here you find living medical professionals and managers from the hospital, academics from Staffs and Keele Universities, and other relatively well paid clerical workers. However, they have consistently returned a leftish CIndie councillor, and went Brexit along with all of Central's other wards. The only one resisting the Leave sweep was the student-heavy Hanley Park & Shelton, and they're not likely to return to fluffy, friendly, tuition fee pledge-abandoning Tim Farron. From where the LibDems can draw their votes is the question their party strategists will be wrestling with, assuming they have any left who know anything about Stoke.

And there then closes the preview. Labour can win, we have most of the advantages. A local candidate with a locally focused programme and short, smart points on Brexit and local cuts will be very difficult for the other parties to beat. UKIP are hampered by their long-term tendency to decline and they, along with the Tories, will be on the hook over their local records. And it's hard to see how the LibDems can field enough votes to put a serious dent on the outcome, though politics this last year has shown the most considered forecasts can look ridiculous after the event. The great imponderable is if the City Independents stand. Several of their councillors are relatively well known, and some have ambitions beyond providing a package tour. It will be interesting and stressful for all concerned should they enter the fray.

Sunday, 15 January 2017

A Political Guide to Stoke-on-Trent Central

This is the second post I promised about Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke Labour, and all things Stoke. If you want to read a short, potted political biography of Tristram Hunt's time in The Potteries, here's where you need to go. There's going to be a third part too. This will address the prospects of the parties (a la this reflection on Copeland), and should make an appearance tomorrow evening.

First things first, to pre-empt all the articles and reports due to clutter up column inches and the schedules, let's get the tropes out the way. Stoke is going to be portrayed as a proud place, but a down-at-heel place. Words are going to be expended on the boarded up shops, the derelict potteries, the brown field sites gagging for new developments. Statistics will be dredged up on educational attainment, morbidity rates, car ownership, average wages, unemployment. Journalists are going to seek out - and find - people whose views are not the stuff of polite dinner party conversation, but are taken as typical of the Stokie view of the world.

Let's kick this into touch right now. Stoke has its problems. It has some very serious problems. But interestingly, things are slowly beginning to get better. This year, there were fewer brown field sites than last year. More people are in work. Staffordshire University is completing its consolidation in the city, bringing students and jobs from Stafford to the Potteries. And Hanley - the city centre for those unfamiliar with Stoke's six towns - is undergoing a renaissance with more shops, more eateries, and more attractions locals previously had to go out of the city for. This is symptomatic of a turnaround in Stoke's fortunes, and vindicates Labour's local regeneration strategy that identified the city centre as key to improving its general economic wellbeing. There's a lot to do, but Stoke is on the up.

Labour, however, are no longer in power in the city. While all three MPs are from the party, Stoke is governed by a coalition of the Tories, UKIP and the City Independents. The Council Leader is Dave Conway, a man who made his reputation as an old-Labourish community champion against alleged failings and council cuts, and is now presiding over the gutting of the city's Children's Centres, centres that Labour ring fenced and protected from government cuts during its 2011-15 tenure. In truth, Conway is the coalition's figurehead. The real brains, if they can be described as such, belong to the three leading Tories - Abi Brown, Conservative group leader and deputy council leader (at least officially), Jack Brereton, deputy group leader and cabinet member for regeneration, and Dan Jellyman - Cllr Brereton's bag carrier and holder of the heritage brief. Between them, they run the council. When the regular Council Leader's meeting comes around with the local MPs, it's Cllr Brown who takes them. In nearly two years, the nominal council leader has attended one. Just one. It's also Brown who goes to the meetings with officers, liaises with Tory-controlled Staffordshire, does all the sexy economics stuff. If there's a positive announcement to be made, on new housing for instance, Brereton fronts it up. Meanwhile they made sure the City Independents took the cabinet positions where the coalition's going to take political hits for the cuts. Smart politics. The Tories are also ambitious - it's my understanding that the Jellyman worm has turned and is jostling with Jack for the Stoke Central Tory nomination as a step toward better things. Abi on the other hand is keeping her powder dry. She's seen the first draft of the redrawn boundaries and is said to find one of the new Staffordshire seats a tantalising prospect.

The City Independents are a manifestation of the anti-politics culture that has taken root in Stoke over a number of years. They're against a lot of things, but politically they're all over the place. Their 2015 local election manifesto was truly a classic of the genre, and included gems like building a tramway system running from north to south at the cost of billions, the production and marketing of a tea set based on the Staffordshire Hoard, and a package tour of Stoke-on-Trent that went right down to the detail of the breakfast menu. It is small wonder the Tories have rode roughshod all over them and are pinching the glory for Stoke's economic regeneration while the CIndies cop the flak for everything else. Among their varied ranks, they can count a name-dropping "friend of the stars", an unapologetic ex-BNP councillor, someone who thinks the NHS should be scrapped - but has the temerity to call themselves a socialist when it suits, a fool removed from UKIP for an anti-refugee quip too gross even for them and, yes, it has to be said, a bearer of a child sex offences conviction. The CIndies are a crew ranging from the befuddled and harmless to the downright inappropriate. And yet CCHQ is absolutely fine with Stoke-on-Trent Conservatives breaking bread with these people. Oh yes, and all this is footnoted by Cllr Mick Bell of UKIP, who's there to make up the numbers and keep Labour out of office.

Naturally, it's one of those fine ironies of which politics is fond that all the measures Labour took to turn the city's economy around only bore fruit once it left office, and now is something the current administration is keen to capitalise on. And, politically, if you follow Stoke politics askance, the image that comes across is the coalition appears to be doing okay. This is because the local paper, the beloved Sentinel, covers the current council with less of a critical eye than it did when Labour was in charge. And because they haven't made any serious missteps (yet), most people remain favourably disposed or indifferent. For example, last year they dipped into reserves to forestall £15.5m worth of cuts. It might have sent finance officers into a bit of a sweat, but the sky didn't fall in and they reaped some kudos for doing so. This year, however, they can't repeat the feat and so the axe is going to fall on more services, including the aforementioned Children's Centres. Now they have to do unpopular things, we'll see how the coalition manages.

Unfortunately, and as much as it pains me to say it, while all this was and is going on, it sometimes feels the local Labour Party has gone to sleep. This doesn't mean it has grown inactive. For example, every week sees campaigning activity in Stoke North constituency and each of the three MPs have the causes they champion. What's lacking there is an overarching citywide view, no - to use a horrible phrase - "global critique" of the council and its works. Or rather it exists, but is has yet to be drawn together as a basis of a campaign. For ultimately, this is where the by-election will be won or lost. And that presents a difficulty for the party. After two years of not getting much of a hearing, preceded by a council tenure marked by unpopular decisions and (in my view) an undeserved reputation for arrogance and authoritarianism, Labour has a hill (or, seeing as we're talking about Stoke, a bank) to climb. Thankfully, a Labour Plan for Stoke in the shape of a local industrial strategy is in the works - but that will be revealed in due course. And, crucially, by-election-wise, as far as I'm concerned Labour needs to select a candidate that either lives in Stoke-on-Trent, works in the city, or has very strong connections to the city. A parachutist from any party will not do seeing as locals feel they've been used as a stepping stone for someone who just passed through. This appetite is shared by the local party too.

Interest in the vacancy so far is what you might call "healthy". Folk who've shown an interest are Staffs County Council candidate for Cannock and 2015 Moorlands PPC Trudie McGuinness, 2005-09 Stoke mayor and former Northwood and Birches Head councillor Mark Meredith, ex-Momentum organiser Cllr Chris Spence, Cllr Steve Funnell for Bentilee, Cllr Darren Price (and 2015 Congleton PPC), Newcastle-under-Lyme CLP chair Allison Gardner, and many more. Brainstorming in the curry house last night, we came up with 30 names that would likely put in. But there's one name that definitely won't be entering the mix - mine. I've had nice messages on social media and in real life encouraging me to run. Having seen a MP close up, I think I could do it and, channelling David Cameron, be rather good at it. The truth is I'm not interested. Putting in would mean going through the motions for something my heart is not set on, and we've just bid farewell to someone who had their eye on other things. My mind could change in the future, but there's other stuff I want to do first.

There then is your rough field guide to local politics in Stoke-on-Trent Central. There's more, but I'm sure it will all come tumbling out during the course of the next few months.

Saturday, 14 January 2017

Untangling Theresa May's Attack on GPs

It's not like the perennially slow and ultra-cautious Theresa May to take a risk. After all, her plodding leadership makes Gordon Brown look like Flashman. But that is what she's doing with her attack on GPs in response to the NHS crisis. It seems rash as government confrontations with medical professionals never end well for said government, so it's worth pausing for a moment to consider what's going on. Is this panic stations by a PM desperate to wriggle off the NHS hook, or something more calculating?

1. Theresa May is lucky at the moment. Her image as a grown up, calm professional politician remains the case for large numbers of people. She's not in control, her government is beset by crisis and paralysis, and those backbenchers retain their potential for trouble, but appearances assume a reality of their own if cultivated by enough outlets. May, understandably, would like to extend her honeymoon period indefinitely. Apart from the weekly drubbing at Prime Minister's Questions, the polls consistently show she hasn't got too much to worry about at the moment but she's been in the game long enough to know things can change, and however implausible it might seem presently Labour will close in on the government eventually. The NHS crisis has that potential to erode the Tory lead. Time and again, hospital winter beds crises follows Conservative governments as night follows day, and as they don't see it as a problem to be solved but rather managed. After all, taking the health service to the edge of crisis makes to argument that we can no longer afford to fully fund appear that bit more plausible.

2. May's announcement that the GPs will be expected to stay open for longer is entirely in this mould. Rather than release more money or undo the market mechanisms strangling the NHS, the Tories are looking for a way out, something or someone apart from themselves that are to blame. We know from repeat research, press reports and the like that the proximate cause of the problems is demand. Demand driven by the cutting of adult care services, the closure of GP surgeries thanks to an ongoing recruitment deficit, and the shutting down of NHS Walk-in centres. The Tories know this very well: their refusal to act on it isn't a matter of ignorance. Indeed, for them the fact that somehow the entire system hasn't collapsed and is treating record numbers is something to be celebrated. Nevertheless, singling out the GPs is about deflecting blame. The BMA are entirely correct that the government is casting around for a scapegoat.

3. Political ideas and arguments are powerful if they chime with enough people's experiences. The singling out of GP's services is no accident. Everyone knows, thanks to targets introduced under the blessed Blair that getting a doctor's appointment is bloody difficult. How many people have waited until the moment a surgery opens to try and blag an emergency consultation? It's not so much GP services are overstretched, but the rules by which they operate reduce the efficiency of the service and make for worse, more stressful experiences for patients. Because of this, lengthening opening hours appears to make sense. Dialing in to beat the engaged tone would become a thing of the past if only services were available for longer, and you wouldn't have to nip along to A&E. It therefore follows that GPs are the ones to blame for the NHS crisis because they're not doing their jobs properly. The political logic from the Tories' point of view is sound, because their argument might rub against a kernel of some patients' experiences. But we know this isn't a serious solution to a serious problem because the directive comes without the release of any extra money to fund the new opening hours, and that means reduced services, albeit available throughout the day.

It's almost as if the Tories are willing to run down the NHS further to avoid embarrassing headlines.

Friday, 13 January 2017

Goodbye to Tristram

It was nice for Stoke-on-Trent to make the news for something other than footy and the BNP. Less nice that it was my constituency party and my MP at the centre of it. Yes, as the world and its uncle now knows, Tristram Hunt is resigning the Stoke-on-Trent Central seat to take up the leadership of the Victoria & Albert in London. He can now spend more time with his young family, and it's a role he's temperamentally and culturally suited to. This then is going to be the first of three posts - the second will look at Stoke-on-Trent Central, the state of the local party, potential candidates and Labour's chances of holding on to the seat. This one is all about Tristram.

First things first, Tristram's announcement was greeted with the crows of his opponents, and the commiseration of his friends. For those identifying with the Corbynist left, this proves he was a careerist with no interest beyond self-advancement. For those arrayed against the leadership, Tristram's resignation is a loss of talent that reflects badly on Corbyn's prospects. There is no attempt to analyse or understand. Pigeonholing is the order of the day. The truth lies between these two poles, and I know. Because not only do I know him and have shared the local party with him for almost seven years. I used to work for him too. If you came here hoping for a denunciation, you will be disappointed.

Readers with long memories might recall the circumstances in which Tristram became the Labour MP for Stoke Central. The fag end of Gordon Brown's short tenure saw a scramble for seats as the 2010 general election loomed. Coincidentally, a long-running factional battle in this constituency centered around the local directly-elected mayor reached its climax. Early that year, the NEC intervened and put the CLP into special measures - in effect, the Labour Party's version of direct rule. Letters were issued to members ruling the upcoming AGM out of order and attendees were threatened with suspension and sanction. Said meeting went ahead and the whole constituency party was placed on the naughty step. The ruling on this came very quickly on the heels of the incumbent MP - Mark Fisher - unexpectedly announcing his retirement. Two months from the election and Labour was without a candidate.

Because of the special measures and because of the proximity to D-Day, longlisting and shortlisting was the province of a NEC panel. It was at this point that Tristram's name first surfaced, with the FT getting the scoop. Being foolish I didn't believe he stood much of a chance - little did I appreciate the dark arts of Peter Mandelson and how brazen the party can be when sorting sinecure for the favoured. I then thought selections were a meritorious affair. Pah. The longlist was a varied field of local folks and people from outside Stoke. And then came the shortlist: it was basically Tristram and two also-rans cynically tacked on so the local party had no choice but to rubber stamp the NEC's favoured choice. Seriously, I've interviewed dozens of candidates for the local government panel and I struggle to remember anyone worse than this pair. But as stitching goes, this isn't the most egregious. I digress. Tristram was duly selected and the Potteries moved into the light of a new dawn.

Locally, Tristram made a bit of a splash. The sort of plaudits getting heaped on him now echo those greeting his arrival in Stoke. Tristram had glamour, had connections, had ambition. He was going places and that made him a good catch for Stoke-on-Trent. He was lauded by local notables as a future Prime Minister, or at the very least someone who could open doors for the city in The City. As I was unemployed and despairing of ever finding work, Tristram was kind enough to offer me a job as a caseworker in the constituency office. Given the political distance between us it did give me pause, but in the end making a living came first. And I thoroughly enjoyed it. In addition to the casework, each of us in the office had a number of projects that aimed to define the shiny new MP in some way. For example, I was charged with putting together the 'Stoke Stories' conference in conjunction with the RSA to strengthen relationships between local third sector organisations, and lend any assistance and support the office could give them. Others over the last seven years included the backstamping campaign, the annual get together of local business leaders, the Maths Excellence Partnership, a campaign to save nursery provision, and securing an exemption for beleagured potteries from the renewables obligation. There were more! In addition to this, Tristram and his office got through a heavy caseload and secured some notable victories at the local council, with the DWP and sometimes (sometimes!) the government. Small shifts in policy or getting back monies owed isn't Bastille storming stuff, but it is important and makes a difference to those affected by them.

Meanwhile, Tristram was something of an object of fascination for the left. As one of the best known Blairites in the PLP, and being one of the few unafraid to (occasionally) avow himself a disciple, I always found it strange why he had a weird fan club. Was it the glamour? The proximity to Mandelson? His book on Engels? Far from getting a hostile reception, trade unionists in Stoke couldn't wait to meet him. I had self-identified Trots from elsewhere always asking after him. And even after that picket line crossing episode to deliver a lecture on Victorian civic culture and not, as per received myth, to speak on Marxism, he remained the left's favourite Blairite. Even if to hate and troll.

The mystery didn't end there. In person, Tristram is pleasant and funny, isn't overly posh and doesn't come across as a snob. But he remained an enigma both to his staff and the local party. Hand on my heart, despite working closely with him I cannot say why he decided to become a Member of Parliament. Nor, unlike Liz Kendall and her liberalism can I honestly say what his politics are. There would be many times he got up in front of the CLP to defend the Blairite commonsense about winning elections, of securing the southern marginals so we can help best Stoke-on-Trent, but there was never a sense of vision. For someone heralded as an ideas man, there were no ideas. For someone who was and remains passionate about education, I never understood where that sprang from. There was no patrician concern for the poor, which some might have expected. Nor a desire to get into power and reform our way to the New Jerusalem. Absent too was the obsession with power for its own sake - he never struck me as someone who had a personal hunger for government. On a number of occasions when asked about Tristram, I often likened him to the gentlemanly Victorian who was passing through Parliament on his way to other things.

The absence of politics was also the root of his mistakes as a politician. In the days following the 2015 defeat, he was shocked to find his opponents had laid the groundwork for their leadership challenges among PLP colleagues well before election day. As a result, the MPs not already signed up for others and happy to back him were quite modest. This absence of nous touched on other areas of work. As I wrote previously, one of the benefits of having Tristram as a boss was that he'd leave you to use your own initiative. He was not the kind of Member who took the correspondence home to check the spellings and tone. This also meant he didn't take as much of an interest in local politics as an MP should. Meetings with councillors were ad hoc and infrequent, local party strategy was something he fought shy of, and keeping the CLP happy wasn't a high priority. The latter undoubtedly helped contribute to it near-unanimously voting to endorse Jeremy Corbyn last summer. Unfortunately, like many Labour MPs, Tristram doesn't and didn't understand much the party or movement of which he is part, and didn't show interest in advice from staff and other local Labour people about how to navigate these choppy waters. He might have avoided the embarrassment of picket-linegate if he had, for instance.

Lastly, I was not surprised to learn of Tristram's departure this morning. Even before the election, local comrades knew my belief that if we didn't win in 2015, he wouldn't contest 2020. That became increasingly obvious after the Boundary Commission slated Stoke-on-Trent Central for deletion in the great Tory gerrymander. And there was the summer's grumblings that saw a local branch take a vote of no confidence against him. If Tristram wanted to hang on he would have had a torrid time, and not in a good way. The V&A position with its reported £300k salary has saved him from all that. Other Labour MPs in similar pickles are no doubt looking for gilded exits and hoping something like this will fall from the sky.

I don't bear Tristram any ill will. I shall always be grateful for the two-and-a-half years I carried bags. It was a fantastic job and, bleeding heart that I am, I helped a lot of people out in shit situations. We all did. But like him or not, the politics of his departure leaves the party in a weakened position and a by-election that is going to be difficult. Legacies should be celebrated. It just saddens me that Tristram's is something Stoke Labour is going to have to overcome.