Saturday, 16 December 2017

Quarter Four Local By-Election Results 2017

Overall, 116,787 votes were cast over 79 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison see Quarter Three's results here.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q3
+/- Q4 2016
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         76
37,818
   32.4%
 +1.8%
   +1.6%
   498
    -7
Labour
         73
40,480
   34.7%
  -2.9%
   +9.8%
   555
    -1
LibDem
         65
21,263
   18.2%
 +6.3%
    -0.2%
   327
   +9
UKIP
         27
 3,003
    2.6%
 +0.6%
    -3.2%
   111
    -3
Green
         43
 3,745
    3.2%
 -2.0%
   +0.0%
    87
   +1
SNP*
          3
 3,762
    3.2%
 -2.0%
    -4.5%
 1,254
     0
PC
          1
   525
    0.4%
 +0.4%
    -0.9%  
   525
     0
Ind***
         28
 5,187
    4.4%
 -1.7%
    -2.4%
   185
   +1
Other****
          6
 1,004
    0.9%
 -1.0%
    -0.9%
   167
     0

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were two by-elections in Wales
*** There were five Independent clashes
**** Others this quarter consisted of Yorkshire Party (153 and 156), Putting Hartlepool First (474), Elvis Bus Pass (34), It's Our County (Herefordshire) (156), and English Democrats (31)

Nothing dramatic has happened in this quarter, though the numbers for the top parties are a touch depressed, no doubt thanks to a surging Liberal Democrats. These kinds of percentages and successes were last seen before the general election. With nothing moving in the national polls, are we seeing a reversion back to how it was before last April, at least as far as by-elections are concerned? Possibly, though UKIP remains almost entirely spent.

Anyways, the year end aggregation is up next so we'll cast some more thoughts in this direction then.

Friday, 15 December 2017

Local Council By-Elections December 2017


This month saw 15,448 votes cast over 12 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Four council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with November's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Nov
+/- Dec 16
Average/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
           11
  4,038
    26.1%
 -10.4%
       -3.1%
    367
    -1
Labour
           12
  6,353
    41.1%
 +16.9%
     +23.9%
    529
    -1
LibDem
           10
  3,022
    19.6%
   -5.4%
       -0.8%
    302
   +1
UKIP
            2
    139
     0.9%
   -0.9%
       -6.3%
     70
     0
Green
            8
    585
     3.8%
   -0.5%
      +2.3%
     73
     0
SNP
            0
 
    
 
      
 
     0
PC**
            0
  
    
 
      
   
     0
Ind***
            8
  1,311
     8.5%
  +6.9%
      -6.4%
    164
   +1
Other****
            0
   
    
  
     
    
     0


* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes this month
**** No Others this month

It's December, it's near Christmas, it's been snowing, and that can only mean something of a thin month as far as by-elections are concerned. While Labour power to a commanding lead in terms of the popular vote, seven of the contests took place in seats held by the party. Though, of course, the 41% mark is more or less where we're knocking about in a good selection of the national polls ... Also, unusually, despite being about five times larger than the Tories December is one of those rare months the latter was out-organised, albeit thanks to Labour fielding a candidate in a City of London by-election. For their part, the Tories respect the "neutrality" of the corporation. Remember, this is the one municipal authority in the land that allows businesses to vote. Fun fact, institutional voters outnumber actual humans in the overall electorate.

Whatever. Not much movement in terms of seats. The Tories picked up a seat from Labour in nearby Newcastle-under-Lyme, while dropping one each to the LibDems and an Independent. In all the year finishes with the LibDems back on a mini-by-election roll, though we'll see if that persists into 2018. And the Tories fall back from a very healthy November to a weak December, though this seems to have more to do with the vagaries of the contests than anything more substantial vis a vis national politics.


7th December
North Devon Newport Lib gain from Con
Enfield, Enfield Highway Lab hold

13th and 14th December
Barnsley, Rockingham Lab hold
City of London, Portsoken Ind gain from Ind
Exeter, Newtown St Leonards Lab hold
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bradwell Lab hold
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Newchapel Con gain from Lab
Salford, Langworthy Lab hold
Torbay, Watcombe Lib hold
Torridge, Westward Ind gain from Con
Welwyn Hatfield, Handside Lib hold
Wigan, Shevington Lab hold