Wednesday, 26 April 2017

Waiting for Jolyon

Political parties are more or less the expression of classes or class fractions. They organise classes, articulate and arrange their interests, and are a means by which they become conscious of themselves. The durability across nearly all the advanced nations of parties that represent business, that represent labour, that represent small employers and layers of professionals, and how all party systems have seen the eruption of left and right populisms tied to changes in class composition confirms the durability of that insight. Even in the more open party systems of Continental Europe, where parties seemingly appear over night and carry all before it, Emmanuel Macron's En Marche, Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement, and before it Berlusconi's Forza Italia, do not escape this sociological truism. These parties and movement/party hybrids succeed where they succeed because they speak to and condense constellations of interests and conflict that exist in the real world. Politics is concentrated economics, and why it's a nasty, filthy, unprincipled affair.

If only politics wasn't like this. That, instead, it was a nice debate among nice people who only mean nice things. Is there a saviour among us who could transcend chronic division, cast aside the muck of ages and guide us along the golden path to full liberalism? Readers desperately casting around need not worry any more. There is a man, and what's more, he has a plan. I give you Jolyon Maugham, Queen's Chambers and Graun/Twitter celeb, and the Westminster-trembling news that he's (sort of) launching a political party. Yes, if liberal ex-ministers with loads of insider experience and a big media profile can get through to the final round of the French presidential elections, so an occasional guest on the Daily Politics sofa shake up politics. Like Macron and sundry others, Jolyon's even given his party its own stupid name: 'Spring'.

Jolyon originally intended to stand in Theresa May's Maidenhead constituency but, after telling us he has "some great friends in the music and creative industries. Serious people ...", he reluctantly decided that Spring will not get its outing at the general election. Come now Jolyon, to announce a new party and then declaring an intention not to stand, what have you to lose apart from your deposit? If it had stood, it would have been a corker alright. Honest. Theresa May, politics as a whole would not know what to make of it. His shtick? According to the strategy document, Spring's debut campaign was about throwing a party. This would be
a joyous, optimistic thing. Not political.
Not talking about politics then, during an election. Great start. 

He goes onto say his party's, um, party would be about
celebrating unity. 28 days long, each day ‘hosted’ (food, drink costume) by one of the member states. We have bands, and comedians, and writers, and thinkers, and artists, and designers.
Foreign stereotype cosplay is perhaps best left for UKIP socials.
And to deliver focus, and urgency, and to frame the contrast with the nation at large, and to make the party a national event, we stand a candidate (Jo Maugham QC) in Maidenhead against Theresa May.
Are you going on the doorstep with your berets and bicycles?

On the feasibility of toppling Theresa May, Jolyon knew he was against a sheer face with jellied eels for grips. But he has positivity on his side, a can do mentality!
There are local pro-Remain groups. The seat has great symbolic value. And – most importantly – if we can inspire people with our celebration they will come again. They will come early, tomorrow. And knock on residents’ doors, and smile, and talk
I can imagine what most residents will say back when you let on you're part of the 28 day freak show parading through town.
The celebration will lay the foundations for a new political party. The strength of those foundations are our metric of success. We will collect members. We will build a brand. And we will raise funding. Spring. A new start. A brighter future.
Inspiring. Sign me the fuck up.
Spring is a party of the radical centre. Solutions for the world today and tomorrow. Not yesterday.
New Labour sloganeering to stir the soul.

After saying they're honest, fair, and progressive, he subjects the mainstream parties to withering critique.
Like Sherlock Holmes and Moriarty, Labour’s left and moderates are bent on one another’s destruction.
Hark at that on trend telly reference!
No one knows what the Lib Dems are for – other than the Lib Dems.
Nope. Everyone now knows Tim Farron very definitely, definitely loves gay people. But not in a gay way.
And we vote for the Tories reluctantly, lacking an alternative.
Do you now, Jo? Such declarations make your progressive creds look ropey ...

Then he moves to wrap up the strategy document.
Step One: Jolyon announces to The Maidenhead Advertiser that he’s standing. It filters
out to the National Press. The website goes up, with a short biog, a teaser, a ‘register’ button and a ‘donate’ button.
Step Two: We announce the festival and some acts.
Step Three: We begin to release policies.
All of which would have got Spring off to a flying start.
There is a lot to do. But. If you build it, they will come.
Field of Dreams. Generations of political people who've read all the notorious tracts from The Prince to What is to be Done? have been doing it wrong.

Yes, there are a layer of people who'd love to see the EU referendum result reversed. And if it wasn't for the utterly foolish and downright dangerous precedent ignoring a clear majority result would be for a democracy, it might be a good idea. The problem is for these folks, remainiacs if you will, the European Union is more than a trading bloc with an opaque bureaucracy. It's their Soviet Union, their City on the Hill, their Jerusalem. In their minds, the EU condenses Enlightenment values and liberal internationalism. It's an achievement standing above the nationalisms and tribalisms of old, that proves we can all get along on the basis of common humanity. And they have the nerve to look down their noses at Leave voters and call them deluded. It's stop-the-world-we-want-to-get-off, liberal-stylee.

Jolyon might think he's putting down a flag and showing leadership, but the laughable awfulness of his foray into party politics shows he's rudderless and without ideas. The remainiac milieu not drawn into the LibDems haven't a clue what to do next, and from that flows confusionism and naivete. At least those taken in by the yellow party, albeit under a false prospectus because they think the referendum result should be honoured too, have a focus. They're getting stuck into politics and helping shape the post-Brexit landscape. What is Jolyon and his oh-so modest "party" doing, apart from parading his naivete?

Tuesday, 25 April 2017

The Scottish Tory Resurgence

This general election is very interesting. Particularly Scotland. Last weekend, Survation for the Sunday Post had the Tories on 28% to the SNP's 43%. This could net them eight seats at the nationalists' expense. Panelbase for the Sunday Times has them down for 33%, or 12 seats. As this is a social science blog that prefers facts over nice illusions, how can this uptick in Tory fortunes be explained?

Let's backtrack to the Britain-wide fall out of the Brexit vote. For some time, we've noted how in England the losing side has acquired a political dynamic of its own. The Liberal Democrats - the party most associated with staying in the EU - are surging in council by-elections and piling on the members. They sailed past the 100,000 figure this week and look set to bust through their all-time record. Had the referendum gone the other way, no doubt Leave would be pulling in and motivating a layer of voters. Rather than getting a battering in Stoke, UKIP may well have taken the seat and it could have been them surging in local contests, instead of dwindling away. Careful what you wish for indeed. We saw a similar dynamic unfold in Scotland after the independence referendum, and the blood price the SNP extracted for their defeat was the destruction of Scottish Labour.

Remain voters are energised and leave'ers are less so, the majority of the latter appearing to line up behind Theresa May. In Scotland, the shoe is on the other foot. With the utter dominance of politics by the SNP who, lest we forget, have been running the Scottish government for almost a decade, and are pushing another independence poll on the basis of the Brexit vote, the SNP is clearly the party of remain. It then begs the question where to go if you don't feel the nationalists speak for you on independence nor the EU? With Labour down for the count, it has to be Ruth Davidson's Tories. After all, they're not the Scottish establishment and, rape clause notwithstanding, Ruth is so personable and warm that the Tories can't be too bad.

With the cohering of the Leave/No vote around party lines, so the SNP could well lose seats to the Conservatives. A disaster for Scottish nationalism? Not in the slightest. While Sturgeon would rather not bid farewell to however many MPs, a viable Scottish Tory party suits her party's interests. They can be singled out as a warning against complacency, a visible enemy to overcome. And it allows her to burnish the SNP's social democratic creds regularly, strengthening the binds of irrelevance keeping Labour down. If you want a progressive alternative to what the Tories are doing at Westminster, Our Kez and friends aren't in a position to deliver it are they?

The looming problem the SNP have, however, is the danger they may have overplayed their independence hand. When all people hear is independence, 2nd referendum, independence, 2nd referendum, voters can get fed up. That leaves the SNP vulnerable once the shine starts to dull because their time in power has been less than stellar. Education inequality in Scotland is shocking, and the SNP appear powerless and clueless about what to do. That and other issues can leave them vulnerable to the Tories and their specious - but effective - rhetoric of one nationism and having plans for everything.

We will see if the results bear the polls out in the local elections, and then on June 8th.

Monday, 24 April 2017

How Opinion Polling Works

Which of these is most representative of public opinion at large? A heavily gamed voluntary poll of 160,000-odd people done on the behest of This Morning that shows a commanding lead enjoyed by Jeremy Corbyn over Theresa May; or any of the recent spate of polls by professional polling companies who show very much the opposite consistently on the basis of samples between 1,000 and 1,800 people. I have to ask because lots of people have been pushing ITV's poll as more representative than anything YouGov can come up with. After all, it covers more people. The latter? Pah. It was founded by a couple of Tories and provides findings politically convenient for Jeremy Corbyn's opponents. If they were free and fair it would show more support for Labour because I know loads of people who support Labour.

If you happen to share these views, you're wrong. The methodology of opinion polling has been refined over decades of research, and why pollsters and other researchers (including distinctly un-Tory sociologists like me) can make confident generalisations from seemingly small pools of people. This operation has two dimensions to it, but both kinds of test deal with probabilities.

Before anything, we need to start with the ‘null hypothesis’. This is the assumption that when we approach two social phenomena there is no relationship. The maths underpinning statistics are set up to confirm or refute this hypothesis. In the case of polling, tests of statistical significance show the likelihood that claims of no relationship between the cases under study and the results can be rejected. Hence when a poll is compiled, characteristics reflective of the population at large are selected for. For a typical poll, the sample group of, say 1,000 respondents, represents in miniature the population at large or the segment of the population the operation wishes to survey. If we don't do this, then a huge validity question mark hangs over the subsequent claims made. A sample should approximate as much as possible the age, income, gender, ethnicity, etc. profiles of the group or sub-group to be studied. If 30% of the population are over the age of 60, then that should be the case with the sample. If 10% are from a non-white ethnic background, it needs to be reflected. I’m sure you get the picture. Selection then is never completely random but is within the parameters set by the research design. If you’ve never been contacted by a polling company, don’t take it personally!

We have our pool of demographically representative respondents then, but how can we surmise that the views of the sample are equally as representative? This is where tests of statistical significance come in. These are mathematical procedures designed to establish the likelihood that observed characteristics – in this case political opinions – are random (i.e. the null hypothesis is true) or infer a pattern of views that really exist “out there” in wider society. All surveys compute statistical significance tests, which you can usually find by burrowing into the data sets polling companies release along with their results. These tests ask a simple question: if a hundred representative samples were taken, what number of the observed results could be put down to chance alone? If the computed figure returns 0.6, then 60% of cases can be put down to randomness, for example. If it’s 0.05, then five per cent of the sample cases are likely to be random, and so on. The lower the level of significance, the more confident researchers can be that observed data reflects real proportions existing in real populations. When it comes to statements about samples, researchers typically use either 0.05 or 0.01 depending on sample sizes (large for the latter, small for the former). i.e. We are 95% or 99% certain that observed patterns really do exist and are not an artefact of the maths.

This isn’t the only test of statistical significance available. Instead, one can produce an ‘interval estimate’ which, instead of identifying the probability of sample patterns mirroring those of general patterns, looks at errors in sampling. For instance, if 48% of our sample say they’re going to vote Conservative, and such polls have done the rounds recently, how close to the real figure is this finding? This can be inferred by computing a standard error statistic. This means multiplying the Tory figure (48) by the non-Tory figure (52). This gives us 2,496, which is then divided by the sample size. Assuming a sample of 1,000, this equals 2.496. We then apply a square root, which gives us 1.578. This is all very well, but why? This standard error can be used to suggest the real number will be circa 1.6% above or below the polling figure. We have already seen that >0.05 (or 95%) is taken as an acceptable level of certainty in our previous significance test providing, of course, the sample is representative. If it is, we can say with 95% confidence that the numbers of people planning to vote Conservative will be 48%, +/- 1.6%. For example, this is why pollsters in the lead up to the first round of the French presidential election found it very difficult to call because the four front runners were, at times, all within the margin of error of one another.

Sometimes pollsters weight their samples in a particular direction. For example, rather than going for an accurate snapshot of the general population, they sometimes ensure older people are over represented and younger people underrepresented because, as we know, the old are much more likely to vote than the young. Likewise, people from low income backgrounds, have lower levels of formal qualifications, and so on might be scaled down for exactly the same reason.

There you have a very basic overview of polling. There are criticisms of significance testing, and in this age of Big Data a growing clamour suggesting that sampling of this sort may have had its day now huge data sets are available (though, it has to be said, most of these are under the lock and key of public bureaucracies and private business). There are specific criticisms one can make of polling companies. YouGov, for example, is reliant on a database of voluntary sign-ups. There are about 800,000 who’ve joined their UK panel, so while they are likely to not reflect the general population the company has enough data about their demographic characteristics and preferences to construct representative samples out of them. However, they have got into murky waters when they’ve tried polling members of organisations. For one, they have no hard data on the characteristics of their wider membership and so have difficulties generating representative samples. And also, they sometimes have very low numbers of people belonging to certain organisations. I can remember them conducting a poll on Jeremy Corbyn’s support among trade union panel members, and arrived at the CWU’s result after asking just 50-odd people. The union has around 190,000 dues payers.

As a mathematical discipline, statistics have two centuries of scholarship behind it. Polling might get it wrong occasionally, but again that's because it deals with probabilities. Researchers and pollsters can learn from these mistakes, methods can be refined, techniques can be calibrated, improved. Unfortunately, rejection of polling because a leading firm is owned by Tories, because they are used for self-serving political reasons, and because they show Labour plumbing the depths doesn't mean they're wrong. To pretend they have to be because they contradict your experience and views is naive cynicism. The problem is this gets us nowhere. Clinging to illusions is only setting yourself up for a fall when reality crashes in.

If we want to change the world, we have to ask questions, analyse, think, and explain. If things aren't going our way, why? And on that basis, what are we going to do about it? That's the route to making things better because it's the only way.

Sunday, 23 April 2017

Gravitonas ft Army of Lovers - People are Lonely

Macron vs Le Pen. Or, to crudely map British politics onto the French, it's Andrew Adonis V Nick Griffin. Exactly the sort of exciting programme sure to mobilise disaffected voters behind an anti-fascist bloc! Bugger it, let's have some europop instead.

Saturday, 22 April 2017

Back on the Doors in Stoke Central

Here we are again. The dust has barely settled on the by-election, Gareth Snell has been our MP for just two months and the Prime Minister pitches us into another battle for votes. Thanks for that. At last night's hastily rebadged constituency meeting, assembled members discussed the campaign to come. And, for obvious reasons, there's a big difference versus what went before. Our famous victory back in February was something of an unsubtle affair. UKIP and the Tories found themselves up against the steam roller of the Labour Party machine and they were flattened - in the kippers' case, to the degree of breaking them permanently. Coming into this election, Stoke Central Labour still has weight of numbers, but for the small matter of elections taking place everywhere else, the CLP has gone a little bit Kim Jong with Jucheist self-reliance, albeit with Stoke characteristics.

We campaigned hard in the Winter. The Spring finds us campaigning smart. Without giving too much away, loose lips and all that, what we lack in activist bodies is to be made up by targeted campaigning. We know where our voters are. We know where the kippers and Tories live. And with fresh contact data covering 65% of the constituency's electors, we are poised to run the most sophisticated operation in Stoke Labour's history. With a majority of just 2,600 however, we fall under Labour's internal definitions of a "marginal", and so nothing can be left to chance. If you fancy helping and there isn't a key marginal nearby, let me know at the usual.

For all of this talk of technology, the first campaign session today was proper old school. No targeting, no doorstep apps. Just a team of smiley, weirdly energised volunteers, Gareth, and Shadow Minister for Education Angela Rayner. We were out and about in Cllr Andy Platt's patch in Boothen and Oakhill ward. Yours truly was stuck with the board, which had the happy advantage of giving me oversight of the results. The first thing to note is that Labour were by far the strongest party coming through from the returns. We found one life-long Liberal Democrat, but there was no sense in this part of the ward they were cutting through as per the impressions given off by social media. Second, most of the Labour vote found was quite enthusiastic. I say most as there were some grumbles about bins and the like. But there was a young woman who proudly declared her support, and a couple who begged us not to tell our councillor comrade they voted for UKIP during the by-election but were definitely returning home for the general election. While you might have expected a bit of politics fatigue on the doors - remember, during the by-election they may have received as many as 40 pieces of literature - there didn't seem to be much. What was concerning, however, were the number of non-voters. These tended to come in two categories. Itinerant EU workers passing through who aren't eligible to vote in parliamentary elections, and long-term non-voters of which there are always too many. Also of interest was everyone we spoke to today were people who didn't get caught by our previous dragnet of the constituency.

You can't really conclude much from one session of three that took place simultaneously, except to say we didn't find any shifts in support (apart from the UKIP couple melting back towards us). And asking the other teams, their results were fairly similar to ours. Enough then to come away with a feeling of cautious optimism while the polls continually cast a doom-laden shadow.

Labour Party Campaign Strategy

A few remarks to complement yesterday's consideration of Tory strategy.

1. Labour is massively behind in the polls. Whether you think they're wrong or not (I don't believe they are), they have material effects on campaigns and election outcomes. Some countries limit their use in the lead up to voting for a reason. We're at a disadvantage, and we're perceived to be at a disadvantage. On top of that, Jeremy Corbyn is viewed negatively by the public at large. The polls show it. Reception on the doors show it. Why that is has a number of roots and is something for after the campaign's conclusion, not now.

2. With the tide of public opinion against it and facing up to the worst press our party can ever expect to receive, Labour has wisely gone for a split campaign. In effect, Labour is going to be running 229 local campaigns defending seats the party holds, and a smattering of other locally-focused efforts where the candidate lost in 2015 but the margins are tight, and who-knows-what elsewhere. From perceived necessity, Jeremy is being filed away for the election by local campaign committees and the emphasis on x Labour person standing up for their area vs the Tories is on the cards. In other words, turning a national election into local elections is the pathway to safety. Good if you're an MP with a strong local record and profile, not if you've spent your time in Westminster "socialising" at Strangers and doing precious little else.

3. With the odds stacked against him, this is the Corbyn moment par excellence. Earlier in the year we were promised Trumpian-stylee populism, and now we have it. The Corbyn campaign launched on Thursday with a very clear us vs them message, meaning that already the party has a level of clarity we struggled to achieve in 2015. Will this make a difference? We shall see, but what it can do is a) motivate large swathes of the party's membership to hit the campaign trail, b) hope to draw the disaffected in its train, and c) force the Tories to respond. By putting the big issues upfront early and framing them, it makes the attacks and smears to come look cowardly and desperate, and it gives us an issue base from which to immediately rebut Tory policy.

4. This is what Jeremy is good at. His leadership campaigns from the last two summers were master classes. The task for his team and our movement is to repeat it on steroids. When the leader is up there addressing crowds, even when he's taking hostile questions from the press, he looks impressive. If there is hope for Labour, it lies in the ability of this campaign to get voters to take a second look at what he's doing and what his message is. It also conveys a simple truism: Jeremy is comfortable in public talking to and engaging with people. Theresa May, like a typical authoritarian, is terrified of them.

5. The local campaigns and the national effort don't have to be at cross purposes. Here in Stoke, part of our messaging is going to be around making Brexit work for our people - just as it was during the by-election. Likewise, messages around 'A Brexit that works for all' are starting to come out, and before the election was called work was being done in understanding what progressive policies could be adopted whose implementation would have been prevented by continued EU membership - a much more imaginative approach than Tory hopes for free trade deals with far off lands. As Labour is facing a LibDem threat in some Remain-voting seats, and have been pinned as incoherent on this issue by our opponents, unanimity on what a Labour-negotiated Brexit is essential.

Friday, 21 April 2017

Tory Party Campaign Strategy

And they're off! This is less a two-horse race of LibDem leaflet fame, and more a thorough bred tearing up the track as the knackered and no-hopers settle into a canter. At least that's how the Conservatives and their helpful friends in the press and broadcast media see it. And, understandably, they want to maintain that ridiculous lead. A stumble here, a distraction there, in these volatile political times who can say with any confidence that the Labour horse won't put on unexpected speed and take a surprise victory? One for Arthur could become One in Theresa's Eye, if they're not careful.

The Tories know this. They become their sharpest and most self-aware when an election is in play. The return of Lynton Crosby to the fold, now "Sir" in recognition of the scurrilous campaign he ran in 2015, provides advance notice of what to expect. Smears of leading Labour figures, the ceaseless opposition of Labour chaos to Tory stability, scapegoating and fear-mongering over immigrants, nonsense about public spending, and, latterly, the need for a strong hand to see down the dastardly Eurocrats in the Brexit negotiations. A recipe for the worst in living memory, the only saving grace this general election has is its tight timescale. And so, as far as electoral politics go, the Tory task is a simple one. Maintain the coalition corralled by 2015's fear and loathing, scoop up the returning UKIP vote and strike just enough of a One Nation pose to grab disaffected Labour, and job done. The LibDems might take back a few seats that fell to the Tories, but the sacrifice will be worth the pick ups they expect elsewhere.

We'll see these attacks when they arrive, but foremost in CCHQ's mind is ensuring the wheels don't career off the wagon. This is difficult when their best card is their biggest weakness. Theresa May, in some respects, is the perfect candidate. Throughout the Dave/Osborne years, she was an absent presence, a shadowy figure who sat at the Home Office and let the toffs get on with fronting up the government. Where she did court controversy, as with the racist van wheeze, liberal public opinion got indignant but it enhanced her standing with the withering Tory grassroots and she emerged unscathed. Her coronation after the joke of last year's Conservative leadership contest meant she evaded scrutiny of her record and the policy platform she favoured, and so when she took to the podium outside 10 Downing Street and delivered her Ed Miliband speech, for most people it was the first time they'd properly seen her. And so an address that few, in the abstract, could disagree with, a politician feted as a "grown-up", and a country in the biggest hole its has ever dug for itself, May presented as a figure that all kinds of hope could be projected onto. This was also a very favourable contrast to Jeremy Corbyn's person, who through a mix of missteps, internal sabotage and the worst coverage a Labour leader has ever attracted, was (and is) cast as a figure who epitomises the crisis of politics.

At her introduction as the new Prime Minister, May was therefore something of a Tony Blair figure, and it's no accident that she's running a 1997-style campaign. By that, I mean while the Tories are ahead in the polls by the sorts of margins New Labour commanded, they are hypersensitive to anything that could go wrong. With Blair, that was mostly at the level of policy, which was why anything smacking of "old" Labour - trade unions, the 's' word - were expunged from the campaign lexicon. It's different with the Tories this time, as May doubles up as their biggest weakness. Anyone knows that at Prime Minister's Questions, more often than not she is left looking robotic, dithery, shifty, and unable to think on her feet. If points scored at the weekly ding-dong translated into points on opinion polls, Labour would walk the election. However, it is a minority pursuit and so the confected assumption of May's competence and maturity remains untroubled. Tory objective number one is to maintain that standing, therefore no leaders' debates. It's not that they fear Jeremy Corbyn would be able to turn it around on the basis of a couple of set piece events, but that she would stand utterly exposed as hapless. If, after all, she can't beat the Labour leader in a debate, how can she negotiate a decent Brexit deal with hard nosed folks across the Channel? It also explains the difference between the style of the two emerging campaigns. While Jez held a rally (of course) and took awkward questions, May helicoptered to a golf club the other end of the country for the softest of launches with tame Tory councillors and assorted lickspittles. No journos, no members of the public. Crosby's nightmare is to have her cornered and expected to answer questions where "we're spending record amounts" won't do as an answer. Their strategy has to be based around keeping her away from the public. There is nothing to be gained from engaging with them, and possibly a few losses as well.

You don't have to be a genius to see how this could store up problems for May. By neglecting the media and allowing more coverage of the opposition parties, that can feed into her stability vs chaos pitch - especially if a leadership debate goes ahead without her. They will also be banking on the idea that the more the public see of Jeremy Corbyn, the less they'll like him. It's a gamble, though, especially in these politically febrile times. The flip side of this is the media will start running 'where's May' pieces. Already, they're chafing at the PM's studied non-engagement. The point will come when the campaign has to decide whether this silence is damaging, and they'll try neutralising it in a couple of ways. One would be a Q&A with "the public", which they haven't ruled out - though I would imagine May would have difficulties if her interlocutors are allowed follow up questions. And the second will be Crosby's dead cat. When the press is jam full of complaining and moaning, expect them to push hard on the IRA or Islamist stuff. They won't have any new material, the old stuff dredged up by two Labour leadership campaigns will do the job well enough. And when that happens, Labour has to be ready with a counter of its own.

Another interesting side strategy is expectation management. In stories "leaked" to the press this morning, punters are being fed the derisory nonsense that opinion polls in the key marginals could be out by as much as 15%, and so every vote counts. Utter nonsense, of course, but rational - from their point of view - nonsense. Assuming the Tories win, doing so without speaking to the public is bad enough, but on a turnout significantly below standard numbers stores up legitimacy problems for the future. That might not matter if the majority is a thumping tally, but it certainly will for a Prime Minister determined to prevent Scotland breaking away. If May wants to pose as Britain's authentic voice, she'd better have a strong vote backing her up.

A public facing campaign without the public. This is what we can expect from the Tories and, unless something major happens, it should see them through. More's the pity.

Tuesday, 18 April 2017

Theresa May's Surprise General Election

Ask me this morning if there would be a general election, and I'd have said no. The stars were aligned against it, and yet here we are, stumbling about with our gast well and truly flabbered. Her shock announcement caught everyone on the hop, and Westminster and its echo chamber are gripped by elation and despair. Elation for the Tories who think they're going to storm to a huge majority, and for the LibDems who expect to regain a lot of the seats it lost, and despair for Labour. Tom Blenkinsop, for instance, has already announced he won't be defending his Middlesbrough South seat.

Already, the reasons for calling it have been churned through. The slim majority making her vulnerable to persistent awkwards opposing her domestic agenda and Brexit, the uncertainty whether Tory electoral fraud allegations might result in a slew of by-elections, and the ridiculous poll leads different companies are chalking up for the Tories, when you lay them out like that it makes you wonder why we didn't see it coming. After spending months chuntering about not facing an effective opposition, today she moans about Westminster being too divided and offering too much opposition, singling Labour out in particular for threatening to vote against her deal. Pathetic, really.

Clearly May thinks she's going to win. She has reasoned that any seats the Tories stand to lose to the Liberal Democrats will be made up from others taken from Labour. It's difficult to see how she could be wrong, but this is politics we're talking about and it lately has had the tendency to throw up a few surprises. Optimism, however, has to be grounded otherwise it's merely a polite term for delusion. With the political weather against Labour, are there opportunities to turn it around?

There is the naked opportunism of May's move allied to politics fatigue. As a rule, electorates do not favour overt self-serving though, given the state of polling, any backwash from people who'd change their mind on this basis is going to be negligible, unfortunately. Since last June, her personal ratings have been better than that of the her party's. Because of her super serious I'm-a-grown-up image, I think she'll get away with it. Yet it might not be as straightforward as the thinks. Many Labour MPs in vulnerable seats have spent time digging in. Their campaigns are going to be very local emphasising their community leadership creds and the like. Easy to do if you were already a constituency-focused MP, less so if you're a phantom who manifests only when a general election seance summons you. Thirdly, May's one-nationism makes her vulnerable when she's pursuing a sectional path. I agree with Theo Bertram, Labour should play hardball. It's too late now to do the dirty digging, but it's not like the government haven't handed its opponents plenty of ammunition. The Tories are going to go big with the IRA stuff? Fine. We should go big with their rape clause, and keep doing it. Having a good programme, and Labour has a good programme, doesn't mean eschewing sharp, shocking messages. The Tories don't hold back, after all, and we can expect a few dead cats if things start going awry.

Then there are events. Trump in Syria, Trump and North Korea, if these bubble over into a something much more serious, they could hurt May. Remember the Iraq debacle continues to cast a long shadow over British interventionism, as Dave found to his cost. It wouldn't be wise to rule out the consequences of the French presidential elections either. If Jean-Luc Mélenchon surges through to the second round, that straight away undermines the media's Labour unelectability thesis. Most people won't notice then, but if the outcome is a Mélenchon or Le Pen presidency then there will be consequences for our general election, particularly around Brexit - what with the left favouring a reformed EU, the far right leaving it. In this eventuality, a sense of growing crisis on the continent can't not have an impact.

And that brings us back to Brexit. The first two-thirds of May's premiership saw her wriggle and avoid saying what it was, beyond empty platitudes. Political necessity has decreed this untenable and we're getting a sense of it in dribs and drabs. However, she cannot get through the next six weeks merely repeating "red, white, and blue Brexit" and "we're going to get the best Brexit deal" nonsense. This presents an opportunity for her divided opposition. For a number of reasons, a progressive alliance is a non-starter, not least because the LibDems cannot be trusted. However, there is some room for a wee bit of cooperation between them, Labour, the Greens and the Scottish and Welsh nationalists. All the parties want as soft a Brexit as possible, so there is no reason why they cannot arrive at a common position. With Remainers more motivated to turn out, as council and Parliamentary by-elections have demonstrated this last year, there is a possibility tactical voting on this basis could thwart May's ambitions and stop them in their tracks. A people's Brexit sounds facile, but something like that to oppose May's corporate Brexit could work.

Labour are in for a very tough time, and things look grim. Yet it doesn't have to be a cakewalk for the Conservatives. They can be denied their majority, they can be beaten, but not without an incredible effort and smart strategy. It's going to be a rough six weeks.

Monday, 17 April 2017

Chuka and Dan: Jeremy Corbyn's Heirs?

Jeremy Corbyn has saved the Labour Party. A seemingly counter-intuitive claim considering the awful polling and depressing personal ratings he's attracted, but nevertheless it is true. The first and most obvious sign are the huge numbers that have joined up. After years of decline followed by years of stagnation, the activist pool has swelled and the party has a broader range to draw from when it comes to electing lay officials, choosing council candidates, and selecting future Labour MPs. As I've said many times already, there are future ministers and perhaps even a Prime Minister who joined our party because of Jeremy Corbyn. The second is the policy legacy that he's managed to bed down in just 18 months. Without even a year under his belt, Owen Smith (remember him?) felt moved to challenge him on a Corbynism-without-Corbyn platform. And now, despite the usual malcontents having a moan and getting their name in the papers, would-be leaders have moved onto this terrain as well. That's if the big pitches recently made in the New Statesman by Chuka Umunna and Dan Jarvis are anything to go by.

Readers will recall Chuka's aborted leadership campaign in 2015 before he went on to back Liz Kendall for the job. And Dan, well, no one properly knew where he stood until recently. Not that it mattered for some media and PLP folks who think Dan's "compelling backstory" would alone be enough to capture the party leadership and take Labour back into Number 10. Thankfully, there are good reasons to believe he's not succumbed to the hype others have trailed about his person.

Both essays aren't too dissimilar in terms of what a Chuka-led or Dan-led Labour Party might look. If you're someone who, like me, believes the route to Labour's long-term success involves it being self-ware of its place in society, that it is the condensation of a range of varied but broadly common interests flowing from that position, and the party should stand up for and prosecute those interests, then there are things to commend their pitches for.

The core of Chuka's essay is what he calls the 'foundational economy'. This is a fairly vague concept denoting "the services, production and social goods that sustain all our daily lives." This does not fall into the old dichotomies of public and private (or third sector, if you insist on bolting that on). What it does encompass is "transport, child care and adult care, health, education, utilities, broadband, social benefits, and the low productivity, low wage sectors of retail, hospitality, food processing and supermarkets". In other words, it's that part of the economy whose output is the reproduction of Britain's social infrastructure. For example, in my old pit village take the school, the post office, the local grocers' stores and newsagent, the pubs and Miners' Welfare, the bus routes connecting us to Derby and other local towns. This mix of small business and publicly owned services during the course of their day-to-day activity reproduced and were dependent upon the social relationships they drew together. From this you derive a sense of identity, of place and locality that helps you feel secure and rooted. This is basically shading into Anthony Giddens's conceptualisation of the routines that gird social life, of ontological security. During the 1980s, the destruction and selling off of nationalised industry as well as the collapse of manufacturing dealt this foundational economy a blow. Where full employment was replaced by mass unemployment, the social fabric suffered. Then New Labour came along and its vision of regenerating the economy was about rebuilding public infrastructure (albeit through the dread Private Finance Initiative) and trying to crowd in business investment in urban centres. This approach informs most regeneration strategies now, and one that, Chuka notes, excludes the peripheries of major cities - I would suggest these peripheries are your medium-sized cities, towns, suburbs, villages and rural areas in general. The consequence of this is Labour is seen as the party of the city, and might go a bit of the way to explain why it doesn't do so well everywhere else. Therefore, future industrial strategies have to be foundational and social. It must strengthen the reciprocity that makes for strong, cohesive societies and strengthens the sense of security people feel.

Dan's contribution is more focused on the problem of Brexit and the seemingly bumpy one Theresa May, at least rhetorically, is taking us toward. After making a number of standard Labourist criticisms of her reckless approach, Dan channels Will Hutton's celebrated The State We're In and makes the case for a proper joined up industrial strategy and one that, this time, won't shy away from tackling Britain's persistent problems. Here, there is an emphasis on what you might call the "good state", the idea that government has a duty to do industrial activism. This is key to his notion of 'civic capitalism', of subordinating the economy to the public interest. Of course, this might be as every bit as slippery as the national interest, but in the context of his essay it's clear - a social democratic one-nationism in that will provide industrial leadership to help generate the jobs of the future, drive innovation, meet the challenge of the coming wave of automation, strip out British capitalism's long-term weakness for short-termism, breaking up concentrations of and spreading asset ownership, and strengthening workers' rights, including reserved positions on company boards. While the language is more technocratic and checklist than Chuka's piece, Dan argues that civic capitalism must go beyond economics. It means taking education seriously and investing more, of reversing the tendency to centralisation and devolving power and responsibility downwards - this includes federalism and participatory budgeting. In short, a programme of national renewal. If this sounds familiar, you would be right. It's a beefed-up version of Ed Miliband's pitch prior to 2015, and what the Prime Minister "borrowed" just before she entered Downing Street.

What interests me is both agree on the main weaknesses of New Labour, that it didn't pay the interests of the people it was supposed to represent and stick up for much mind. For example, during the Blair/Brown period Dan writes that the government used "public procurement budgets to pump tens of billions of pounds into opaque PFI deals and outsourcing contracts, some of which have worked, but many of which have delivered dubious results and lower wages for workers". He goes onto argue that it too was trapped in short-termist, markets good/public bad thinking, and this is at the root of Labour's legacy problems. If anything, Chuka is less sparing:
Labour’s historic role is to be the party of the national labour interest. Our purpose is to represent working people and to redress the imbalance of power between capital and labour. And we provide protection for those who cannot work or support themselves. We have lost this role. Reciprocity was once at the heart of the relationship between the Labour Party and working people. In return for their support, our obligation was to use the power of government to protect and further their interests. This mutual sense of obligation has broken down.
This is the first time I have seen a mainstream Labour figure state what Labour is about in blunt terms. This is indeed a a million miles from the Liz Kendall pitch Chuka supported just under two years ago. The question is, do they mean it or are we looking at Owen Smith-style cynicism?

I usually believe someone until they give me cause not to believe them. There are two political realities that anyone with Labour leadership ambitions need to face up to. First, the reasons why the Labour membership went for Jeremy Corbyn have not gone away. The bulk of them wanted to see a return to "proper" Labourist politics. This wasn't old-style Bennism, though such nostalgia did have its pull among the coalition of support Jeremy mobilised, but a sense that Labour should be standing up against the Tories. It should not equivocate on matters of fundamental principle (and interest) and seek to appease the press and public opinion on cuts to social security, bashing immigrants, and the matter of the austerity agenda. It means recognising many members cling to Jeremy despite the polling not because they're cultists, but because they're worried that when he goes the same old crap critiqued by Chuka and Dan will come back. As there are plenty of former ministers around who did oversee policies and stirred rhetoric detrimental to the interests of our coalition of voters, such concern is entirely justified and especially so when they're arrayed against the present leadership. Therefore, from the point of view of winning a leadership campaign programmes like the ones offered here are a necessity. No one wants to be a four-and-a-half per center. The second reality is wider politics. The Tories are as sectional and awful as they ever were, but part of May's appeal is that she doesn't appear that way. Her One Nationism is a hostage to fortune as she could come unstuck on attacks on the disabled, the defunding of schools and the NHS, and the special favours the Tories will confer on big business if her "red, white, and blue" Brexit fails. The goodwill she has could quite easily evaporate if opposed by a programme and a party that means it. A renewed Blairism is therefore impossible. A Labour manifesto offering light touch regulation, more privatisation and marketisation (under the guise of "public sector reform"), and vague promises to manage thing better and fairer than the Tories is a non-starter. What's happened to the Socialists in France and Labour in the Netherlands, and the centre left elsewhere, should serve as salutary warnings. Do they mean it? They have to mean it or they won't go anywhere.

Imagine, a Labour government that comes to power conscious that it represents the interests of the overwhelming majority of people and is prepared to see them through. This is Jeremy Corbyn's legacy. If, as the polls indicate that's not going to happen under his leadership, it's increasingly likely his successor will implement it. They have no choice.

Saturday, 15 April 2017

The Sun, Kelvin MacKenzie, and Tabloid Economics

Trolls sometimes get their comeuppance. While the bigoted and the dishonest continue to rant and rave from the platforms provided them by Britain's most poisonous media outfits, it seems one can go too far. That's if Kelvin MacKenzie's suspension from The Sun is anything to go by.

As far as I can tell, MacKenzie's done nothing qualitatively worse than your average Melanie Phillips or Rod Liddle nudge-nudge-racism piece. Readers will also recall his appalling attack on Channel Four News's Fatima Manji in the pages of the paper, and no action was forthcoming. Though to make a cheap jibe at Liverpool's expense given his and The Sun's previous here underlines an arrogance that comes with the belief of being untouchable. Anyhow, it is now a matter for the police. Which is just as well because it's not MacKenzie's unreadable boilerplate that interests me: it's his suspension.

Yes, who'd have thunk it? The most terrible enfant terrible of 1980s journalism, the man whose editorship powered the currant bun to its soaraway success and made tabloid reporting synonymous with scapegoating, jingoism, racism, smearing, and dumb-downed tittle-tattle. Yes, that Kelvin MacKenzie, hung out to dry by the paper he made. First things first, as large numbers of people have asked, why did MacKenzie's piece appear in the first place when his column must have gone through gates kept by sub editors, legal, and the editor's office? Surely it wouldn't have taken much to spike it? I'd wager that didn't happen because it's Kelvin MacKenzie. He's a legend and comes with as much swagger as he has history and status. The editorial office might prefer to have someone else take up his slot, but there's always Uncle Rupert to worry about. No longer as hands on as he was during MacKenzie's day, nevertheless senior hacks, senior legal, and senior executives have to work towards the fuhrer so everything's a-okay in case a call comes through from New York. MacKenzie got leeway, and arguably his comfortable berth in Friday's paper, because of his association with the Dirty Digger.

Why hasn't MacKenzie's friendship with the proprietor got him off this time? Perhaps the suspension is for show, but equally it could be a consequence of moves within The Sun and News UK. Like most of Britain's newspapers, it's at something of a crossroads. Present daily circulation is around the 1.6m mark, having lost 1.4m readers since 2010. Yet since dropping Murdoch's pay wall, traffic to its family of websites has doubled. As of January this year, the paper is claiming around 25 million page views per month, putting it slightly ahead of The Mirror (though they dispute this) and trailing The Mail and the BBC. Online is obviously where the audiences are, and The Sun have tried all kinds of stratagems to get the punters in. It's invested heavily in Facebook, Snapchat and Instagram, and is trying to work out how to turn growing audience numbers into pound signs. After all, with The Mail's huge global audience of over 200m/month, that translates into ad revenue of £23m per quarter. Not a lot, really. Since The Sun came out from behind the wall, it's searching for other ways to make online pay - such as its dedicated betting platform and other paid-for services ancillary to normal newspapery content.

Emerging into a mature market, The Sun's strategy is an interesting one. Whether it turns a buck, however, remains to be seen, especially as profits in the internet age are overly dependent on cornering a market. For this strategy to be a success, The Sun is trying to carve its own niche. The Daily Mail model, which relies on piling up audiences for ad revenue, accomplishes this via notoriously voyeuristic celebrity coverage, and to a lesser extent providing hyper partisan right wing coverage and comment that brings in the "right old fascists" of which MacKenzie once opined, and outraged liberals and lefties aghast at their latest outrage. Those markets are more or less sewn up. The paper could provide a straight up copy, but it would lose. The second problem is The Sun needs to bring in young audiences to replace the oldies still buying physical copy. While it still casts around for a strategy that can capture them (as per above, their approach to social media is making a good fist of it), revenues depend on not upsetting the apple cart.

Which is what MacKenzie's column does. Everyone knows The Mail is an appalling outfit, but it's not dependent on the editorial line for the audiences generated by stalking celebrities. The Sun, which does not have that luxury, must chase younger internet users. As social attitudes surveys consistently show, the younger you are the more likely you are tolerant of racial/ethnic difference, immigrants, non-heterosexual sexualities, and so on. With a rising, more cosmopolitan generation The Sun cannot blast them with the halitosis of racism and hope to be a success.

As I said, the suspension might mean nothing beyond cynical damage limitation. MacKenzie could be returned to his inglorious perch and his comments long forgotten by the time he gets another invite onto Question Time and the like. But that the higher ups felt the need to do this when they might have shrugged it off is interesting, and only makes sense in the context of internet tabloid economics.